WASHINGTON — The Republican strategy for the New York midterms, as the party described it for the better part of a year, had a name. The name was Zohran Mamdani. He was the weapon. He was, in the party’s own words from last spring, the “socialist neophyte,” the sharpest edge in a state the party intended to use as a warning to the rest of the country.

That weapon is now, on the record, being set aside, and in its place the party has reached for Governor Kathy Hochul, a moderate Democrat who, by the party’s own polling, is less liked than the socialist they just decided not to run against.

Politico reported the shift this week, noting that because casting Mamdani as a socialist “carries less weight farther outside the city,” Republicans have “fixed their sights more squarely on” Hochul as the symbol of the state’s leftward lurch. The Siena poll, which the party is now citing, puts her at 49 percent unfavorable against 46 percent favorable, with a lead in the governor’s race over her Republican opponent of 52–32.

That is the number. That is the entire strategy. The party is now, on the record, betting that a Democrat who is more popular than she is unfavorable, and who is not a socialist, will be the better target than the one who is.

"The socialist was the weapon. The moderate is the target. The party has decided the moderate is more dangerous, and the poll it is citing shows the moderate is less."

A Republican strategist, speaking on the condition of anonymity because, as the strategist put it, “the alternative is explaining the pivot on the record,” described the change as “a correction.”

“We were going to run against the idea of socialism,” the strategist said. “What we found is that the idea of socialism doesn’t travel outside of Manhattan. So we’re running against the thing that does travel. The thing that does travel is a woman who has a 46 percent favorable number and who, on the record, is not the target we were promised.”

THE NEW YORK PIVOT: THE NUMBERS THE PARTY IS NOW USING

  • The original weapon: Zohran Mamdani, the "socialist neophyte"
  • The new target: Kathy Hochul, the moderate governor
  • Hochul unfavorable: 49 percent (Siena poll)
  • Hochul favorable: 46 percent (Siena poll)
  • Hochul lead over her GOP opponent: 52–32 (Siena poll)
  • Weight of the socialist label outside Manhattan: "less," on the record

The switch has produced what one Democratic operative, who has been running against the party for a decade and has learned to let it do its own explaining, called “a preview.”

“They spent a year building the Mamdani pitch,” the operative said. “They spent a month finding out it doesn’t travel. Now they’ve built the Hochul pitch, and the poll they’re using to justify it shows Hochul is ahead. That’s not a strategy. That’s a receipt.”

At press time, the pivot had been described as a “correction,” the poll had been cited as the reason, the socialist had been set aside on the record, and the number that was supposed to be the problem, 49, had been introduced to the press as the solution.