The new Marist poll released this week is, in the language of the polling industry, a number. It is, in the language of the strategy industry, a situation. And it is, in the language of this paper, a number that has become a situation that has become, in the specific, the entire election.

The poll, conducted ahead of the midterms, finds that 53 percent of registered voters strongly disapprove of the job the President is doing, the highest share of strong disapproval the question has produced since it was first asked, and that 45 percent of voters say their choice for Congress is, in their own words, a vote against the President, including four in five Democrats and about half of independents, which is the demographic that polls are, in the specific, for.

The pollsters have a word for the 53 percent. The word, in the report’s own language, is “hardened.” A hardened electorate, in the polling glossary, is one in which the opinions are not, in the specific, persuadable, and the word “hardened” is the polling industry’s way of saying the number is not going to move the way the other side hopes it will, which is to say the word is a warning, and the warning is aimed at both sides, and both sides have received it, and both sides have, in the specific, filed it.

"A number that is 'hardened' is a number that has, in the specific, finished being a number and started being a weather system."

That line is from a pollster who has been doing this for a career and who described the 53 percent as “the kind of number that, in the specific, does not negotiate.” The number, in the pollster’s account, is the reason the midterms are being described, in the focus groups, as being “all about the President,” which is the phrase the campaigns use for an election in which the election, in the specific, is the President.

The strategic response to the number has been, on both sides, to produce more numbers. The Democrats’ number is that independents are breaking sharply against the President, which in the strategy glossary is the phrase for a wave that has not yet arrived but is, in the specific, packing. The Republicans’ number is that approval is “holding steady,” which in the strategy glossary is the phrase for a number that is, in the specific, not 53.

THE POLL, IN THE POLL'S OWN WORDS

  • The number: 53 percent strongly disapprove. The question has been asked since 2017. The 53 is, on the record, the highest.
  • The adjective: "Hardened." The polling definition: an electorate with high-intensity views rather than soft or persuadable ones. The translation: the number is not going to change its mind at a town hall.
  • The 45: 45 percent say their vote is a vote against the President. Four in five Democrats. About half of independents. The independents are, in the specific, the reason the poll exists.
  • The midterms: The question the poll asks is not "do you like the President." The question the poll answers is "is the election the President." The answer, per the 45, is, in the specific, the election is the President.

The practical consequence of a hardened number is that the campaigns, which have been running their usual programming, have now been handed the number and the adjective at the same time, which is, in the strategy glossary, the equivalent of being handed a weather system and a forecast with no umbrella. The forecast is 53. The umbrella is not in the bag.

At press time, both parties were on the record describing the poll, the Democrats as confirmation of a wave and the Republicans as confirmation of a base, and both descriptions were, in the specific, the same 53 percent, which is the number that has, in the specific, become the election, the situation, and, on the record, the weather.