NEW YORK — Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Tuesday that the United States and Iran could reach a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz “today or tomorrow,” a timetable that was also accurate yesterday, and the day before, when he said the same thing. Markets, understandably, are ecstatic.

Crude oil plunged on the news that a deal is imminent — the same news that sent crude plunging yesterday, and the same news that, if current trajectories hold, will send crude plunging again tomorrow, when the deal remains, once again, one or two days away. Nobody at this point is predicting the deal. Everybody is predicting the prediction.

"We're not pricing in peace. We're pricing in the probability of peace," said Regina Hoxha, a senior commodities analyst at a firm that has issued 14 consecutive 'imminent deal' memos. "And the probability of peace has never been higher, because it has never been closer. You can't argue with that. It's the logic of a compass that only points at tomorrow."

The Bessent Doctrine, as traders have already taken to calling it, holds that a deal is always in the window. Never signed, never scuttled, perpetually in the process of being reached — a diplomatic achievement in the same sense that a man who is perpetually arriving is technically always in transit, which is its own kind of success. The secretary’s comments this week that a deal could come “within a day or two” have been interpreted by the market as a firm commitment to the concept of a day, and to the concept of two.

Skeptics — and there are always skeptics, mostly people who have actually watched a clock — point out that “today or tomorrow” is not a date, that “within days” is not a deadline, and that at some point the word “imminent” begins to mean “definitely not yet.” Analysts counter that this is precisely the point. The deal does not need to happen. It needs to be about to happen. The market does not trade on outcomes; it trades on anticipation, and anticipation, unlike a signed accord, can be renewed indefinitely.

The Hormuz Deal Timeline: A Living Document

  • Monday: "A deal could come as soon as Tuesday." — Treasury Secretary
  • Tuesday: "There is a chance we have a deal today or tomorrow." — Treasury Secretary
  • Wednesday (projected): "Very close. Could be today or tomorrow." — Treasury Secretary
  • Thursday (forecast): "Momentum is undeniable. Days away." — Treasury Secretary
  • Friday (estimated): "The window remains open." — Treasury Secretary, before boarding a plane

At press time, a tanker captain anchored in the Gulf told his crew the strait would reopen “any minute now,” then added: “Same as yesterday. Isn’t it wonderful?” The crew reportedly nodded, and the anchor stayed down.