SAN FRANCISCO — On Monday, the company that builds the chatbot which its own executives say might end humanity filed to become one of the largest companies ever listed on Earth. Wall Street is expected to read the risk section, absorb its meaning, and buy anyway, which is what Wall Street does with risk.
Anthropic’s Form S-1 proposes a Nasdaq debut under the ticker “ANT” at a valuation variously estimated between $1.5 trillion and $2 trillion, enough to eclipse the $86 billion SpaceX raised when it listed this June. The offering arrives with a vast catalog of warnings about how it could all end. Investors have described the warnings as refreshing.
I. The end of humanity, priced in
The filing is candid about the technology’s capacity for catastrophic misuse, a subject its executives discuss at conferences with matching somber ties. The document puts the possibility in writing, with lawyers, where it can be held to it. This is considered bullish. A company that admits everything before it takes your money is, in the market’s view, a company that has already said the worst it has to say.
II. $80 billion in losses, printed honestly
Anthropic disclosed roughly $80 billion in cumulative net losses. Not hidden, not restated, not securitized into something with “note” in its name. Just printed, in a column, in a document that will be read by pension funds. Analysts called the number a feat of engineering, which is a compliment that stopped being a joke sometime this year.
THE OFFERING, AT A GLANCE
- Ticker: ANT (Nasdaq)
- Estimated value: $1.5 to $2 trillion
- Record it may break: SpaceX, $86 billion, this past June
- Disclosed losses: approximately $80 billion
- Disclosed risks: the rest of them
III. Alphabet lends up to $20 billion more
Google’s parent company stands ready to supply up to another $20 billion, continuing the time-honored technology-sector tradition of large companies writing very large checks to other large companies and calling it a partnership. The filing describes the arrangement plainly. Plain descriptions of circular money are now the industry’s preferred style.
IV. Competition, from everyone, including itself
The risk section notes Anthropic competes with rival labs, open-source models, and the possibility that its own models outperform its plans for them. Shareholders will be receiving updates on all four fronts in quarterly filings, alongside revenue, guidance, and occasional sentences about the fate of the species.
The debut is expected next month. The opening bell has not rung yet, but somewhere in Ohio a retirement fund has already confirmed it read the risk factors. It did read them. It noted the humanity part. It called the number attractive.